Future Livestock Systems & Resilience

Future Livestock Systems research explores the transition from more vulnerable livestock systems, which struggle to address increased demands for food, to systems that foster equitable wealth, food security, and nutrition. Its modeling and analytical tools are useful to evaluate technologies and inform management and policy scenarios into the future. With information based on analysis of complex local to regional choices, policymakers and other stakeholders can seek solutions to meet the needs of dynamic populations and environmental conditions.

USAID defines resilience as “the ability of people, households, communities, countries, and systems to mitigate, adapt to, and recover from shocks and stresses in a manner that reduces chronic vulnerability and facilitates inclusive growth.” One way to promote resilience is through research that anticipates future shocks and stresses. By considering these two strands jointly, we seek to promote their integration across our research portfolio.

The Future Livestock Systems & Resilience team is led by Dr. Gregory Kiker.

Phase 1

Research from our Phase I work, including scenario analysis, systems modeling tools at the household, value-chain, trade network, and landscape level, and livestock trade network analyses will be expanded to address the following areas:

Future of pastoralism: Pastoralist groups may fail to prosper in the future because of climate issues, conflict, and socio-economic drivers. They also face serious security and migration issues. Phase II research can identify elements of pastoralism that are most important for the resilience of these communities.
Resilient forage systems: Research will expand our work conducted with the Small-Scale Irrigation Innovation Lab in Ethiopia, which generated forage production maps that link water availability with ideal resilient high-yielding forage types. Country-scale and sub-national scale analyses could aid policymakers in identifying and supporting areas of resilient and sustainable forage systems. Modeling-based research in Phase II can examine which socio-economic drivers and networks should be targeted in focal countries to increase domestic feed production.
Resilient value chains and networks: Our previous work on the Sahelian livestock trade network can be expanded to other areas to assess the potential resilience and robustness of the animal-source food trade. These studies can include how market networks and value chains are affected by shocks, including conflicts and insecurity, disease transmission, increasing urban population, corruption, and economic growth. Additional research can look into how livestock markets and trade dynamics can be organized to increase the resilience of poor livestock keepers and food consumers and how national borders and trade policies may affect access to food.

Modelling in Livestock Systems Research

This playlist includes four videos that provide basic background on how modeling and scenarios can be used in livestock systems research.

Journal Articles

Beal Cohen, A.A., Muneepeerakul, R. and Kiker, G. September 2021. Intra-group decision-making in agent-based models. Nature: Scientific Reports, 11(1), pp.1-11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-96661-5

Boone, R.B., Lesorogol, C.K. and Galvin, K.A., 2024. Drought frequency, conservancies, and pastoral household well-being. Ecology and Society, 29(1). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-14872-290127

Enahoro, D., Mason D’Croz, D., Mul, M., Rich, K., Robinson, T., Thornton, P., Staal, S., 2019. Supporting sustainable expansion of livestock production in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa: Scenario analysis of investment options. Global Food Security 20, 114-121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.01.001

Senda, T. & Kiker, G. March 2020. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Rangeland Productivity and Livestock Population Dynamics in Nkayi District, Zimbabwe (pp.2330). Applied Sciences, 10(7), Basel, Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10072330

Valerio, V.C., Walther, O.J., Eilittä, M., Cissé, B., Muneepeerakul, R. et al. May 2020. Network analysis of regional livestock trade in West Africa. PLOS ONE 15(5): e0232681. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232681

Warrier, R., Boone, R.B., Keys, P.W. and Galvin, K., 2024. Exploring linkages between protected-area access and Kenyan pastoralist food security using a new agent-based model. Ecology and Society, 29(1). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-14455-290118

Resources

Aboah, J., Enahoro, D., Dizyee, K., Ajeigbe, H., Shalander, K. and Rich. K.M. 2021. System dynamics modeling of the cattle value chain in Nigeria. ILRI discussion paper 43. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI

Research Note. Valerio, V.C. 2020. The Structure of Livestock Trade in West Africa. West African Papers, No. 29, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/f8c71341-en

Working Paper. Ashley L. 2020. Climate and livestock policy coherence analysis in Burkina Faso, Niger, Rwanda, Nepal and CambodiaCCAFS Working Paper no. 311. Wageningen, the Netherlands: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

Video & Infographic. June 2020. The Network Structure of Livestock Trade in West Africa

Working paper. May 2020. Bardosh, K. Antimicrobial Resistance Futures: Five critical uncertainties threaten policy and response plans of the livestock sector in low-and middle-income countries

Report. Enahoro, D., Njiru, N., Thornton, P., and Staal, S.J. 2019. A review of projections of demand and supply of livestock-derived foods and the implications for livestock sector management in LSIL focus countries. Mid-Project Research Report of the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems (LSIL) Futures Foresight Component, Module I (Quantitative Scenario Modelling). CCAFS Working Paper No. 262 Wageningen, the Netherlands: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

Scenario-guided policy review workshop (Ethiopia)

Blog: Peering into the Future of Livestock Systems

Newsletter: Profile of Dr. Kiker

Valerio-Holguin, V.C., Muneepeerakul, R., Kiker, G.A., Eilitta, M. & Walther, O. 2018. Quantifying the Growth, Development and Resilience of the West African Livestock Trade Network. Poster presented at the 2nd Annual Diversity Graduate Research Symposium workshop at the University of Florida, October 31th, 2018.